Calibrating software reliability models when the test environment does not match the user environment

Software failures have become the major factor that brings the system down or causes a degradation in the quality of service. For many applications, estimating the software failure rate from a user's perspective helps the development team evaluate the reliability of the software and determine the release time properly. Traditionally, software reliability growth models are applied to system test data with the hope of estimating the software failure rate in the field. Given the aggressive nature by which the software is exercised during system test, as well as unavoidable differences between the test environment and the field environment, the resulting estimate of the failure rate will not typically reflect the user‐perceived failure rate in the field. The goal of this work is to quantify the mismatch between the system test environment and the field environment. A calibration factor is proposed to map the failure rate estimated from the system test data to the failure rate that will be observed in the field. Non‐homogeneous Poisson process models are utilized to estimate the software failure rate in both the system test phase and the field. For projects that have only system test data, use of the calibration factor provides an estimate of the field failure rate that would otherwise be unavailable. For projects that have both system test data and previous field data, the calibration factor can be explicitly evaluated and used to estimate the field failure rate of future releases as their system test data becomes available. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鞅方法在一类破产问题中的应用

本文从鞅条件出发 ,推导出了总理赔过程分别为复合 Poisson过程与复合二项过程 ,利率强度波动为带跳的 Poisson过程情形下的调节方程 ,并由此得到了一些有趣的结果。     

Likelihood Ratio Processes for Markovian Particle Systems with Killing and Jumps

We consider Markov processes built from pasting together pieces of strong Markov processes which are killed at a position dependent rate and connected via a transition kernel. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for local absolute continuity of probability laws for such processes on a suitable path space and derive an explicit formula for the corresponding likelihood ratio process. The main tool is the consideration of the process between successive jumps – what we call ‘elementary experiments’ – and criteria for absolute continuity of laws of the process there. We apply our results to systems of branching diffusions with interactions and immigrations. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

一致Banach空间中非扩张映象的弱收敛定理

设犈是一致凸Ｂａｎａｃｈ空间，满足Ｏｐｉａｌ条件或具有Ｆｒｅｃｈｅｔ可微范数，犆是犈的非空闭凸子集，且犜：犆→犆是非扩张映象．又设对任何初始数据狓１ ∈犆，序列｛狓狀｝由下列修改了的Ｉｓｈｉｋａｗａ迭代程序生成：狓狀＋１ ＝狋狀犜狀（狊狀犜狀狓狀＋ （１－狊狀）狓狀）＋ （１－狋狀）狓狀，　狀≥１， （Ｉ）其中，数列｛狋狀｝与｛狊狀｝满足下列条件（ｉ）和（ｉｉ）之一：（ｉ）狋狀∈ ［犪，犫］且狊狀∈ ［０，犫］；（ｉｉ）狋狀∈ ［犪，１］且狊狀∈ ［犪，犫］，这里，常数犪，犫满足０＜犪≤犫＜１．作者证明了，犜有不动点的充要条件是，｛狓狀｝ 弱收敛且｛‖狓狀－犜狓狀‖｝收敛到０．而且，由此即知，若犜有不动点，则｛狓狀｝弱收敛到犜的一个不动点．     

Active long pulse shaping technique of pulsed CO2 laser using multi-pulse discharge control

We describe the pulse forming of pulsed CO₂ laser using multi-pulse superposition technique. Various pulse shapes, high duty cycle pulse forming network (PFN) are constructed by time sequence. This study shows a technology that makes it possible to make various long pulse shapes by activating SCRs of three PFN modules consecutively at a desirable delay time with the aid of a PIC one-chip microprocessor. The power supply for this experiment consists of three PFN modules. Each PFN module uses a capacitor, a pulse forming inductor, a SCR, a high voltage pulse transformer, and a bridge rectifier on each transformer secondary. The PFN modules operate at low voltage by driving the primary of HV pulse transformer. The secondary of the transformer has a full-wave rectifier, which passes the pulse energy to the load in a continuous sequence.We investigated various long pulse shapes as different trigger time intervals of SCRs among three PFN modules. As a result, we could obtain laser beam with various pulse shapes and durations from about 250 to 1000 μs.     

Estimation of integrated volatility in stochastic volatility models

In the framework of stochastic volatility models we examine estimators for the integrated volatility based on the pth power variation (i.e. the sum of pth absolute powers of the log‐returns). We derive consistency and distributional results for the estimators given high‐frequency data, especially taking into account what kind of process we may add to our model without affecting the estimate of the integrated volatility. This may on the one hand be interpreted as a possible flexibility in modelling, for example adding jumps or even leaving the framework of semimartingales by adding a fractional Brownian motion, or on the other hand as robustness against model misspecification. We will discuss possible choices of p under different model assumptions and irregularly spaced data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Design for Automation of Pellet-Forming Process in HL-2A Pellet Fueling System

In the ever fusion experiments in SWIP, pellet forming process was carried out through adjusting relative devices by staff member in site, which will make every pellet-forming process slight distinction and will result in pellet difference in shape, size and intensity. In the intervals of HL-2A discharges, staff member have to go site to accomplish the pellet-forming process, this wastes human power and increase the potential danger. So it is necessary to develop a remote control system to perform the pellet-forming process. The control system needs have the features of real-time, reliability and be easy to operate and maintain.     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cu(II)-catalyzed enantioselective aldol condensation between malonic acid hemithioesters and aldehydes

A mild, decarboxylative, aldol-type addition of malonic acid hemithioesters to aldehydes has been shown to occur with up to 39% enantioselectivity when the reaction was carried out in the presence of catalytic amounts of a Cu(II) salt, an enantiopure, tartaric acid-derived bis-benzimidazole and an achiral base.     

Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.